Daniel Finkelstein
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The Keegan years: Shearer magic or sheer madness?
Right. You. Quick. Name me one thing Kevin Keegan did when he was manager of Newcastle United last time. Go on. Admit it. You said that he cracked when Newcastle were 12 points clear and about to win the title, didn’t you. The “love it” quote flitted through your mind, didn’t it?
So I am going to start Fink Tank’s audit of Kevin Keegan at Newcastle with that. Because the whole thing is a myth. We can do this the simple way – by recalling that by the time Keegan supposedly cracked, Manchester United had overhauled Newcastle and were firm favourites to win the title.
Or we can do it the hard way with some more complicated figure work. And as this is the Fink Tank, I think we should plump for the hard way.
Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham have been applying our computer model to the 1995-96 season. Our model allows us to compare the points scored in a season, or during any part of the season, with the number of points the club should have expected to gain during that period.
Now, if you have been paying close attention you might have come across these Fink Tank figures before. On January 20, Newcastle had their 12-point lead. By that same date, Keegan’s team had 11.4 points more than our model expected. Manchester United were 2.92 points behind where we expected.
From that point, Newcastle performed as well as we would have expected. But Manchester United, having underperformed in the first half of the season, began to overperform in the second half. Keegan did not crack up. His team had overperformed at the beginning of the season. Dismissing this myth, however, doesn’t tell you everything about his record. How good was he?
From the graphs, it looks pretty good, doesn’t it? The man takes over and there is an immediate sharp increase in the effectiveness of both defence and attack. But be a little careful – statistics can deceive if not read properly. Keegan took over after the disastrous start to the 1991-92 campaign. Managers often get off to a good start because they take over a team doing worse than expected. Then a run of bad luck ends, things even themselves out and the team start doing a bit better. The technical term is reversion to the mean. Keegan cannot claim all the credit for the sudden improvement.
However, even taking that warning into account, it is clear that Newcastle were a much better team by the start of the 1993-94 season.
Their attack and defence were the best the club had fielded in years.
But it could just have been money that did it, of course. Again, the stats are kind. We can measure the number of points the club won against the number we would have expected from a club with their wage bill. And Keegan’s Newcastle outperformed the wage bill.
With the exception of two seasons – 1997-98 and 2006-07 – Newcastle have been performing either better or (as in 2004-05) no worse than the wage bill would lead you to expect. Their fans think they are a huge club underperforming. In fact, they are a huge club with less money than they need to be as good as their supporters desire.
As for Keegan, his reputation is well-deserved. But can he repeat his success? Immediately after he left the club, the big club, big-money era really began. Things are different now. Kevin Keegan is a good manager. But then again so was Sam Allardyce.
Email at finktank@ thetimes.co.uk
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No - a constant cycle of overachievement then underachievement then overachievement etc fueled fan/club/media expectation and incorrect director level judgements (i.e. sacking managers too early, not backing the manager over players, employing the wrong managers, not investing a high enough proportion of the revenue due to their own dealings with HIGHLY overinflated player wages, leading to young talented players thinking they made it at a big club) and you get a club diseased in thinking they are amazing.
Bobby Robson was amazing and he got sacked as he was seen as crazy for selling injury prone Woodgate for good money and try to push for one of the best young strikers in this generation (reason? take a pick from any of the above director related issues)
Wilnisfan, London,
Statistics eh! We all love them no matter how meaningless they are. Using statistics in this way helps to prove that Liverpool won the league last year and the Royal Engineers are a good bet for the FA Cup.
There is no way to use the chaotic events of ten years ago to tell you anything about what is going on in the league this year. Chaos theory alone tells us that even tiny changes in starting conditions lead to completely unpredictable results. Common sense tells us all this as well.
Forget all the stuff that happened last time and look at this era. Everyone else in the league has improved, everyone has money to splash about, everyone has a good manager - NFC do not stand out as a prospect for great players to join. There is a complete lack of discipline at board level, managerial level(s) and most clearly on the pitch. Every decision looks like a knee-jerk reaction to some event or other and all the players look unhappy, scared and out of their depth. Genuine chaos at work.
Nogbad T. Bad, Aberdeen, Scotland
Erm I'll think you will find that if Newcastle Unitedperformed to the money it generated it would be top 5 every season, and if it then got into the champions league the revenue would increase the longer it is in the Champions league (increasing the global brand). Thus if we are out of the Champions league or europe we should be top 5/6, in the champions league top 3.
Removing Variables
----------------------------
1. However lets take the champions league variable out of this for a moment
2. and also lets take the momentum of world brands revenue, that comes from being in the champions league, taken into account out of this for a moment.
Then you can see just how big the start off base is for Newcatsle United Football Club:
In England, Only Manchester United and 'maybe' Arsenal have a bigger home fanbase to generate the money from. Thus you can see clearly why Newcastle United has been short changed.
Anyway what ever way you look NUFC top3 or top5
Joe, South Shields/Newcastle,
"In fact, they are a huge club with less money than they need to be as good as their supporters desire."
The only reason mike ashley hasnt been spending huge ammounts already is because he didnt trust Sam Allardyce as a manager....but now he trusts kevin keegan and he'll probably give him much more money than keegan was given the first time.
Jordan , Newcastle Upon Tyne,
Newcastle Fan,
Why should Sam have been given more time?
By your own admission the "tactics were woeful, players were played out of position and his buys were substandard."
It appears Ashley is about to invest serious money in transfers why should he trust Allardyce to spend his hard earned cash when he hasn't shown any ability whatsoever to get his team playing even the functional "winning" football Sam himself constantly alluded to.
If you gave someone £1000 to build you a garden shed and he made a total balls up would you then give the same bloke £10,000 to build your new house extension????
Allardyce is gone because he wasn't good enough. Now hang on to your hat and enjoy the ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Novocastrian, Newcastle,
First class article. Shame you failed to mention that, since the privatisation, Newcastle are now owned by a multi-billionaire.
So, by your logic, we are a huge club with enough money to be as good as us supporters desire. Thanks for that. Cheered me up no end, as if I wasn't already ecstatic.
By the way, 'as good as we desire' means playing great football, not picking up some tin pot playing bland sterile football. So, stats aside, we will all be very happy.
All the best with whatever makes you happy statto.
John Smith, Hebburn,
Sam should have been given more time. This view was not most popular with fans, but then they were split. Trouble is Big Sam put the pressure on himself by playing players out of position. His tactics were woeful-his buys substandard. Sam should have been given more time. This view was not most popular with fans, but then they were split. Trouble is Big Sam put the pressure on himself by playing players out of position. His tactics were woeful-his buys substandard. These things have to be taken into account. However Mourhino including other top managers have done strange things and got away with it. If for instance If I was to point out our new manager flew into rages-throwing a flying football boot-hitting a major star on the head. You would have reservations. As for money, you need it, plain and simple. With the amount of clubs getting new money including our own, there should be more clubs challenging.
Newcastle fan , Durham, Durham
Interesting maybe but the style football is what it is about,
mid-table tactical defensive football or mid-table attacking entertaining football?
No brainer give me KK every time one win equals three draws, three boring draws or KK and two entertaining loses and one win, câmon what would you rather watch??
Same points total but one is a rollercoaster the other is trying not to fall asleep or wishing you were shopping with the wife, you choose.
I have made my choice, WELCOME HOME KK and lets give it another tilt, Win or loose you will not fall asleep on the way.
By the way I was born in Newcastle and live in Falkirk Scotland, how lucky am I Yogie has the Bairns playing very entertaining football on a budget I get to most home games, and back comes KK to have my other team play football win or loose I just cannot loose, all I need now is my lottery numbers to come up. Heart attack fine but I will go with a smile on my face. Talk about when the boat comes in? Yee hah.
cupiddstunt, Newcastle/Falkirk,
Fascinating and hopefully with ashelys billions we can over achieve again from rish is the toon
rish, newcastle, england