Tim Reid in Washington
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000

John McCain pulled ahead of Barack Obama for the first time today in several key battleground states and in a fresh national poll, posing a central question for Democratic strategists: why is this 71-year-old Republican in such a “change” election year doing so well?
After gracing the covers of dozens of magazines and drawing record crowds and media attention for more than 18 months Mr Obama has found himself suddenly in a close presidential race against a man who has been on Capitol Hill for a quarter of a century, has suffered four bouts of skin cancer and who was a staunch supporter of the now unpopular war in Iraq.
In the past month Mr McCain has wiped out what had been a roughly eight-point lead enjoyed by Mr Obama nationally, and yesterday he was placed five points ahead in a Reuters/Zogby survey.
He has also pulled ahead slightly in several critical swing states including Florida, Missouri and Michigan. In Ohio, which is shaping up as perhaps the pivotal battleground, the latest poll had the Republican leading by 5 per cent.
There are fundamental reasons for the current success of Mr McCain, although there are still two and half months until the November 4 election and much can change.
The signature events of the general election campaign — the nominating conventions and the three presidential debates — have not taken place and Mr Obama could still pull away in the later stages. Yet Mr McCain is exploiting his vulnerabilities to great effect and genuinely believes that he will win.
The first factor in his success is that despite the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican party, an electoral wipe-out akin to 1984 or 1972 is unlikely. Most analysts believe the race will be decided by no more than a few percentage points.
In July Mr McCain revamped his campaign team and put Steve Schmidt, the architect of President Bush's relentless “flip-flop” campaign that so damaged John Kerry in 2004, in charge of daily strategy.
He stopped the Arizona senator's freewheeling, and sometimes error-strewn, sessions with the press. The message was sharpened, the Bush model was adopted and they went to work on Mr Obama.
For the past month Mr McCain has released a barrage of negative advertisements against his young rival, painting him as feckless, obsessed by celebrity and too inexperienced to lead.
They stated erroneously that Mr Obama would raise taxes for working families. The commercials hit at the core of voter concerns about Mr Obama. Polls suggested that many more related to the values and background of Mr McCain.
Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist unaffiliated to the Obama campaign, said that his long primary battle against Hillary Clinton only “scratched the surface” of what people knew about him. Polls showed that many voters were worried about his youth and found his slightly exotic background — biracial, raised in Hawaii and Indonesia, and Harvard educated — as unnerving.
Mr McCain, despite being the oldest presidential candidate yet, “is immediately a credible candidate for president”, Mr Devine said, while Mr Obama is still “brand new to America, effectively unknown to the swing voters who are going to decide the election”.
Recent events have also helped Mr McCain. Mr Obama took a holiday in Hawaii for a week, ceding the stage to his rival. Russian tanks rolled into Georgia, a country the Republican has visited several times, reinforcing his message that only he has the experience to be Commander-in-Chief.
His hardline stance against Moscow resonated more with voters than the initially more even-handed approach of Mr Obama.
Mr McCain has also been successful in rallying his party's base behind him, in contrast to Mr Obama. A quarter of supporters of Mrs Clinton said that they would either vote for Mr McCain or are undecided, presenting him with a dilemma in advance of his nominating convention in Denver next week.
Then there is Mr McCain himself. He has enormous energy. He is funny. He came back from a near-terminal collapse of his campaign last year to win the Republican nomination.
His years as a Vietnamese prisoner of war make him a war hero. Perhaps most importantly, despite compromises and panderings to many constituencies in recent years, he has cultivated the image of a political independent.

Obama's victory night and his rise to the White House
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
At the new sophisticated
Encore Las Vegas Resort!
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
This is ridiculous. Watching this race from overseas and without the news media twisting everything really illustrates how silly this is getting. McCain doesn't even acknowledge America has problems, so how' s he going to fix them? Good luck America, you keep yourself at the bottom of the bucket.
Alex, Edinburgh, Scotland
i predicted McCain win months ago it is clear Obama is not credible and i think has too many bad associates. what i do object to was been almost branded a rascist for supporting him by the socialist elite
simon blake, london, england
We'll choose McCain over Obama's grandstanding and empty promises any day. Obama's socialistic ideas do not appeal to us, that's all, and we arn't looking for a messiah of the world, just a capable president at the head of the nation. Obama can give us nothing but oratory.
lawhite, Idaho, USA
As a Hillary supporter, I was -- like most of the other middle-aged, well-educated, mostly liberal women I know -- prepared to buck up and vote for Barack anyway. NOT NOW. The entry of Sarah Palin changes the race. If Republicans can manage not to go too far right, they've probably got our vote.
S Elizabeth Searle, New Jersey, United States
God Obama? Did anyone else expect Zeus to show up during Obama's speech last night?
John McCain had my vote before he picked Sarah Palin for VP. I know him and he has integrity and will do what he says he will do. The choice of Sarah who has more experience than Obama is refreshing!
Marie, Mesa,
Americans enamored with Obama's histrionics call Russia rebuilding their weapon system repub fear tactics. So I guess the top security analysts who believe that 4 years of Obama are all Iran needs to obtain full nuclear capability are fear mongers as well. It's easy to forget the price of freedom.
SP, Honolulu,
I think Barack Obama's domestic agenda would put the United States on a worse track than ever. Opening up the Southern border will just further dilute cohesion in your society, while immigrants will solidify a permanent Democratic majority not welcome in such a dangerous and ever-changing world.
Gergő Lakatos, Budapest, Hungary
As an Englishman in the U.S. I cannot vote, but McCain resonates a depth of knowledge gained from years of service and personal experience. Obama, whilst eloquent cannot match McCain's sasoned resume and hides his flaws behind Hollywood glitz. Please don't vote for Obama I pay enough taxes already!
Stefan, Lake St Louis, U.S.A.
Obama is making multiple mistakes on a daily basis. No VP bump. No convention bump. Listless yawning convention. You can only say nothing for so long before people demand real answers. When Obama gives real answers he just comes across like a weakling with a hidden agenda.
jr, ofallon,
Democrats who used to criticize Obama for being inexperienced and not ready to lead are now praising him and shifted 360 degrees from what they used to say. Do you know the reason why? Loyalty to the party.They'd rather vote for the wrong candidate than lose face within their party. BEWARE!!
Minda Turk, Chicago, Illinois
What's happening to Obama is what happens to EVERY celebrity - He is falling out of the publics eye. It seems like "Extra" can't find anymore gossip.
Phil, New York, NY,
McCain will give a 0% tax cut if you earn $60K or less. (Over 60% of U.S.) He'll give a 4.5% CUT if you make $2.87 mil/year (0.1%). The more you make, the bigger the break.
Obama'll give a 2.5% - 5.5% CUT if you earn 60K or less -& lower taxes overall. --McCn Lies. People believe.
elect OBAMA!
Gregory Massey, Austin, United States
no surprise. americans want to love mccain. he is what we are all about. but the media here won't warm up to him because they are too busy loving obama. once again, regular americans will wise up, reject the media, and vote for the right man for the job.
JJ, new york, usa
I love you John McCain... the new John Wayne... our Hero here on earth anyway... I know that crossings in the sand will always be special to you and he in vietnam... and now to others.
Kristian, Columbia Falls, USA
Experience is of course desirable. However, judgement is necessary too. Mssrs Cheney and Rumsfeld had two of the longest CV's in Washington, yet took the US into the disastrous and misguided war in Iraq, which Mr Obama opposed from the start, even when it was an unpopular position. That takes guts.
Dominic, London, UK
Putin has totally miscalculated. His recent actions will force US voters to vote McCain & Russia will not get an unmolested 8 years to rebuild their weapons systems.
I was given a tour of a missile manufacturing facility in Samara that employed 10,000. Restart manufacture here & big trouble.
Richard, Bucharest,
To be leader of the Free World and commander-in-chief of the American armed forces requires a lot of experience and a proven track record -- both of which only McCain has.
Joe, Baltimore, USA
My political views would be seen to be Republican by most Americans. However, with regard to McCain I have a bad feeling not just for the USA but for the world in general.
Todays geo political climate calls for great tact. I feel McCain has as much tact as a bull in a china shop.
Phill, The Wirral, England
The author of this article demonstrates he is biased for Obama simply by the words he chooses to use. He states McCain has "cultivated" the image of an independent when he IS independent and refers to error strewn speeches but without giving examples. NOT a fair analysis.
SMITH, Kent,
This is embarrassing. I just want you all to know that we're not all this stupid. McCain (we call him McSame) wants the war to continue in Iraq, while forgetting, just as Bush has, that Osama Bin Laden isn't there.
Obama has promised to get us out of Iraq. Let's hope he wins and keeps his word.
Lori Kern, La Mesa, U.S.A.
The white man in the grey suit will win again. Obamas hubris of his speech in Germany was the begining of the end.
tim murray, London,
.....and do you suppose that the more people see of Obama, the more they just dislike him - that in his case familiarity is breeding contempt?
Dick, Penobscot,