Richard Beeston: Analysis
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The conflict in Georgia should by now have settled down. Normally diplomats would be shuttling from Moscow to Tbilisi putting in place a durable ceasefire, working on confidence-building measures and inserting a mechanism to prevent further violence and restore stability to the region.
But this time there is no United Nations Security Council resolution calling on both sides to stop and the world's top mediators are nowhere to be seen.
Instead, Georgia finds itself engaged in a war of attrition with Russia.
The country is divided down the middle by the permanent presence of Russian troops and there is every chance that another round of violence could erupt at any moment.
Reports from South Ossetia suggesting that Russia will eventually annex the breakaway enclave and establish permanent Russian military bases in the area come as no surprise.
From the moment Russian tanks poured into the region, the Kremlin made it clear that it intended to keep a military footprint deep inside Georgia.
Reports this week in The Times, now confirmed by human rights groups, suggest that the Russians and their Ossetian allies have been busy conducting ethnic cleansing of all Georgians from the so-called “buffer zone” created by Russian forces.
“Soon there will be no North or South Ossetia, there will be a united Alania as part of Russia,” said Tarzan Kokoity, the Deputy Speaker of the South Ossetian parliament. “We will live in one Russian state.”
The beleaguered Government in Georgia is largely helpless to fight back, but some support is on its way. It was no mistake that Washington chose to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia via US Navy warships in the Black Sea under the noses of their Russian counterparts. More US naval firepower is on its way and the Pentagon's next step could be rearming the Georgian military.
Next week Dick Cheney, the US Vice-President, will pay the most high-level visit to Tbilisi by a US official as a demonstration of support for Mikheil Saakashvili, the beleaguered Georgian President. The Bush Administration's most hawkish figure will likely use the occasion to warn Russia to back away from confronting America's main ally in the region.
EU leaders are also meeting next week to agree a common response. The most likely outcome will be to offer Georgia more financial support. They will probably stop short of imposing sanctions against the Kremlin but could deliver an ultimatum to Russia about future behaviour.
Mr Saakashvili will not be be travelling to Brussels for the meeting. He fears, rightly, that if he leaves the country the Russians may take steps to prevent his return and overthrow his regime.
Georgia has become the new battleground for a protracted struggle between Russia and the West. There may be no “Iron Curtain” yet, but a new political fault line is being drawn across Georgia. The boundaries can even be seen from space, where satellites have photographed the swath of burning of Georgian villages marking the new de facto border with Russia. This conflict is far from over. It is just beginning.
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Mr Saakashvili will not be travelling to Brussels for a different reason - he hasn't been invited! And that's for good.
Irina, Canberra, Australia
Present and past Georgian administrations have treated their minorities in the most inhumane way. In addition to the Abkhaz and the Ossetians, Georgia has two other sizeable minorities in the south, the Armenians and the Azeris. Both of them have been treated miserably by Saakashvili.
Norma, Cupertino, USA
The conflict is no close to the end now as WWII was in 1938. The pretext of "protecting russians" in neighbor nation makes for very scary parallel.
Alex, Kiev, Ukraine
Gorgians started this war and they are the one to blame.
Michael, NEW YORK, USA
The reason why it all was started is to cut off Russia from the Black Sea. Georgia is the first step, Ukraine is the second one. See the map.
Alexey, Perm, RF
As an occupying power Russia is legally obliged to protect minorities in the territory it controls, by allowing the South Ossetians to ethnically cleanse Georgian villages it opens them up to war crimes charges themselves all the way up to the top of the command structure and that means Putin.
Stephen, St. Ives, England
Answering the question regarding Russian passports:
Russian passports were offered not only to Abkhazians and Ossetians, but to all former citizens of the Soviet Union regardless of whether they lived inside or outside of Russia.
South Ossetians were the ones to take the offer (I wonder why?)
Dmitri, Sydney, Australia
The lesson is that the United Nations Security Council
is dead. Georgia and US killed it
B.Benzi, Cesena, Italy
Don't tell me what to do and I won't tell you where you should go...
Sasha, Staten Island, USA
First of all, Russia had no business to invade Georgia the way it did. Why would Russia offer Russian passports to the Ossetians the do a ethnic cleansing of Georgians would be genocide. The world should go after Putin and Medvedev and charge them just like the Iraqis did to Sadam Husein.
David F., dunellen, usa
Leonid... Your ships DO come near our borders and your planes DO fly near and even into our airspace. As long as they don't cross the 20-kilometer limit, it's perfectly legal for a warship to be near another power's coast. If you don't want NATO warships in the Black Sea, pull back.
Gregory Baker, Odenton, Maryland , USA
Georgia should have known better than a devious attack under cover of the opening ceremonies of the Olympics. They made their bed, let them lie in it.
If the USA decides to re-arm Georgia, then it should be no surprise to anyone if Russia decides to arm Iran, Syria & Venuzuela...far more than now
Karl, New York, USA
Conflict is over and nothing can be done to reverse it.
The only way to have a legal and moral power to talk to Russia is to cancel the independence of Kosovo.
Only politicians with guts can say 'We made big mistake with Kosovo' - but our EU politicians wait for instructions from USA, so no chance.
savo, london, uk
Just simple- more weapons to Georgia, larger possibility for a new conflict, more deads, more tragedy.. Is this an aim of US and UK in here?
The question remains: what are NATO warships doing just 100 miles off the Russian border?
to US: Would you like if Russian warships settle near your border?
Leonid, Moscow,
it is terrible!
they are wiping of the mape entire villages...
the world should wake up!!!
Rezo, Tbilisi, Georgia
stanislav, new york,
Now it's US failt,amaizing!
The map shows active fires in the ethnic Georgian villages on August 10, 12, 13, 17, 19 and 22, well after active hostilities ended ,what this has to do with US weapons?
Rezo, Tbilisi, Georgia
if usa is indeed going to give more weapons to Georgia they are not only supporting more deaths from the Ossetians. But in fact show even more disregard for Georgian people who will be the ones affected.
stanislav, new york,
if usa is indeed going to give more weapons to Georgia they are not only supporting more deaths from the Ossetians. But in fact show even more disregard for Georgian people who will be the ones affected.
stanislav, new york, usa