When Nelson Mandela broke his silence last week, speaking of a “tragic failure of leadership” in Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe shrugged it off, saying the former South African president was merely “bowing to western pressure”.

But Mandela’s successor, President Thabo Mbeki, said nothing. For Mbeki has been Mugabe’s chief supporter – and now finds himself under increasing pressure.

When the Zimbabwean crisis erupted in 2000, Mbeki convened a summit of the leaders of southern Africa’s national liberation movements. The thesis he laid down was that Anglo-American imperialism was attempting to overthrow Mugabe, and that should this succeed, other movements would be toppled in turn.

Mbeki sold this view domestically to his African National Congress (ANC) but insisted to the world that he was involved in “quiet diplomacy” to solve the crisis. He was able to coax the 14 states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to line up behind him. He fended off attempts by the US, the Commonwealth and the European Union to intervene, saying that only Africans could solve African problems.

Britain and the US have since concentrated on trying to isolate Mugabe. Their motion at the UN security council said the March 29 first round of the presidential election (in which Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, won the most votes) was “the only legitimate basis” for a Zimbabwean government. But Mbeki’s ambassador softened this to “the results of the March 29 election must be respected”.

Thereafter, the G8 and EU have insisted that they cannot accept Mugabe’s government as legitimate. The opposition won the parliamentary elections in March but Mugabe simply refuses to summon parliament, retaining a cabinet many of whom lost their seats.

Mbeki, on the other hand, has yet to utter a single critical word about Mugabe and has made clear his bitterness at western pressure. He told parliament in Cape Town that he would “refuse to participate in projects based on the notion that we have a right to bring about regime change in Zimbabwe”. This is, as it were, the liberation movement line. Namibia’s foreign minister, Marco Hausiku, described reports of electoral violence in Zimbabwe last week as “unverified rumours”.

Yet deep cracks have now appeared in SADC. Botswana’s President Ian Khama loathes Mugabe and has reprimanded the Zimababwean ambassador. President Levy Mwanawasa of Zambia, the SADC chairman, has publicly expressed his anger at events and criticised Mbeki’s mediation.

Undoubtedly the most wounding defection for both Mbeki and Mugabe is Angola, which thus publicly dissociates itself from the other liberation movement states. Mugabe has said he will point an angry finger at various African leaders at the African Union meeting in Egypt this week. He has even threatened to break up SADC, though naturally his chief ire is reserved for the “devious, deceitful and invidious” British, especially the “nonsensical” Gordon Brown who is “much more idiotic” even than Tony Blair.

What has weakened Mbeki and threatened Mugabe the most, however, is the sharply different line being taken by the new ANC president, Jacob Zuma, and his Communist allies, who are livid over Mugabe’s treatment of Tsvangirai, a fellow trade unionist.

Zuma’s ANC last week spoke forthrightly of “compelling evidence of violence, intimidation and outright terror” by Mugabe. The likelihood that Zuma will become South Africa’s president next April is already casting a long shadow.

How far will Africa go in disavowing Mugabe? Only 23 of the 53 states in the African Union have democratic governments. The pressure from western donors is likely to be strong, but most will take their cue from the SADC states.

Even though Mbeki’s position has been gravely weakened, it is hard to see South Africa refusing to recognise even a clearly unconstitutional Mugabe government – and others will follow South Africa’s lead. So while a few may withhold recognition, they are likely to be a small minority. Once again, African leaders will simultaneously insist that African problems must have African solutions – and then fail to provide one.

In the end the stronger threat to Mugabe is the fact that inflation was expected to reach 10,500,000% by July, with prices now multiplying 10 times every month. It is hard to see him lasting the rest of the year, although he has disproved many similar predictions in the past.

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