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Predicting the future: Bill Gates's hits and misses
Bill Gates has heralded the arrival of the world's “second digital decade”, predicting that within a few years technology will be in every room in the home, from screens to wall projections and even built into desks or tables.
The founder of MIcrosoft predicted that devices will become easier to use, controlled by voice and gesture instead of mouse and keyboard.
“The first digital decade has been a great success,” Mr Gates told the Consumer Electronics Show, the vast technology fair in Las Vegas that opens today.
“This is just the beginning. There is nothing holding us back from going much faster and further in the second digital decade."
Mr Gates livened up his speech by playing a spoof home video, and by challenging Robbie Bach, the head of Microsoft's entertainment and devices division, to a match of Guitar Hero, a video music game which is supposed to mimic the sensation of being a rock star.
The two corporate heavyweights were joined on stage by real life guitar rockers Slash and Kelly "Tipper Queen" Law-Yone, who played a set.
Giving his speech, the Microsoft boss said that there were more than a billion personal computers in use in the world and more than 40 percent of people on the planet have mobile telephones.
He added that the new digital decade will be increasingly “user-centric” and the trend is for media and entertainment to be software driven.
“The second digital decade will be more focused on connecting people,” said the Microsoft chairman. “Those applications will run on the Internet, in the cloud as we say, and use the best of software services."
The comment came as an admission that the market is moving away from Microsoft’s longtime core money-maker, packaged software that people install on their own machines.
Microsoft has used the conference to announce of a series of media partnerships, including one with BT that will result in British Xbox 360 owners being the first in the world to receive internet-based TV services through their games consoles.
Perhaps with one eye on Sony’s rival PlayStation 3, which doubles as a high-definition Blu-ray disc player, Microsoft also announced a an expanded range of high-definition content available on Xbox Live, the online network of Xbox 360 consoles. Deals with MGM Studios, Disney and ABC will bring their films and TV programmes to the network.
“Xbox Live will have twice as much high-definition content as any cable company,” Robbie Bach, the president of Microsoft’s entertainment and devices arm, said. “This shows that the internet is the distribution medium of the future.”
Microsoft will also supply web video technology to the American NBC television network, which will enable it to stream more than 3,000 hours of footage from the Beijing Olympics over the internet – and make it available on-demand afterwards.
Apart from these entertainment deals, there were few significant new announcements from Microsoft.
Instead, Mr Gates reflected on the changes that have swept through the industry since he gave his first CES speech in 1994. “Windows 95 was just coming together, the internet was just getting started,” he said. “Soon after that we entered our first digital decade.”
The second digital decade, he predicted, would result in gadgets becoming simpler to control and more easily integrated with natural communication by speech, hand signals and gestures. He also showed off a prototype gadget that can identify people and buildings by their appearance and display relevant information about them, such as forthcoming appointments or opening times.
Throughout his speech, Mr Gates emphasised the continuing importance of software and predicted that more sophisticated applications will build bridges between devices, reducing the need for manual intervention. For example, he suggested, when someone takes a photograph with a digital camera, it will automatically arrive in a folder on the photographer’s PC, without any instructions being given.
Mr Gates confirmed that this would be his last speech at CES and he used the occasion to demonstrate his sense of humour – and his power. A video clip imagining his failed efforts to adapt to life in the outside world when he steps down from his full-time role at Microsoft in July featured cameos from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Al Gore, Bono and Matthew McConaughey, who appeared as Mr Gates’ personal trainer. “You’re going to be the sexiest man alive,” McConaughey says, not entirely convincingly, as his newly retired client wrestles with a set of weights.
The subtext of the video seemed to be that, whatever he says, Mr Gates will never really leave Microsoft.
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What a visionary!!! Microsot catching up again.
steve, chester, chester
If Gates is so Wrong as you peopleput it it why is he the multi Millionaie? I will still sauy , fi there is a better op suystem out htere, where is it. All I have seen and read is the complainers that have always been out there!! Mostly tech people, never satisfied with anything!! and Never will be!!!!
Steve Mosner, Bangor ,, Pennsylvania
First off, anyone that tries to predict the future of technology is a fool. it can't be done.
Secondly, Gates has done only one thing, he made Windows more usable and "Mac" like with a GUI, big deal. Who wants to use a CLI to control your computer but, on the flip of the coin, I enjoy using a CLI on my Mac, since my windows machine does not have a real CLI.
bob, los angeles, ca, usa
Paul of Toronto is right. Gates is absolutely not the person to pronounce on the future. Vista has been a popular failure just for starters. The future is one led by the mobile phone - i.e. phones will become the new "personal computers", at the same time ushering in new ways of using and gaining access to information, entertainment and so on. Some phone handsets already point the way with TV out sockets, and bluetooth keyboards. Windows Mobile has been resoundingly ridiculed by the masses, and the experts. It's market share is around 0.6% of all mobiles deployed in the world. This is not success, and we should not look to Gates for a vision of the future.
Alex Kerr, London, UK
When Mr. Gates wrote his first book, "The Road Ahead," he predicted digital appliances instead of the Internet. Would that he make such a mistake again and something as significant as the World Wide Web is just over the horizon.
Paul Girard, Los Angeles, California, USA
Second Decade? Is Gates some sort of Rip Van Winkle? If we start with the Apple in 1976 keeping in mind that this is the history of personal computing, thus discounting previous corporate and military computing), then we are already into the 4th decade.
Pietro Watanabe, Wake Forest, NC, USA
Just to comment on what Paul said... Apple innovative? Microsoft and Apple are no different. The invent little, but just wait in the wings, improve on a product that exists, and patent other companies out of the market. Creative Labs were the visionaries at MP3 players... but Apple swooped in an patented the tiny Toshiba drives before Creative could put out their product, and the iPod was born. GUI? Xerox. New OS (X)? BSD. AppleTV? Microsoft Media Center. As for Vista stealing from OSX... Apple stole just as much from Vista (it was in beta a looooong time).
Todd Charlton, Piscataway, NJ
In reality Microsoft and Gates have been woeful at predicting the future.
Gates had one great idea, that started Microsoft. His 'genius' has not been as an electronics guru but as a business titan. He created Microsoft in his image. A company that would do anything to maintain a monopoly position in PC O/S. And monopolies have proven to not be engines of creativity.
Gates missed browsers, Java (or at least what the potential of Java was and resorted to being spoiler), XML, Internet Servers, Music, Video, everything Apple, etc. They are always playing catch up.
Vista is nothing more than a (poor) attempt to copy Apple's latest version of their O/S.
While I have many issues with Apple (in terms of Digital Rights Management and the cost of downloadable music) Jobs is clearly far more of the future seer than Gates ever was and will be.
So why do the media give him such a disproportionate amount of air time on these topics? Money of course. And Money talks.
Paul, Toronto, Canada
"controlled by voice or gesture", it would be a miracle to see much of Gates' over engineered software controlled at all. Where do you want to go today? I want to spend the entire afternoon discovering how to make Word do what I want and how to undo the mess made in the process. Please
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England